Centre for Financial Risk
The Centre for Financial Risk investigates uncertainty in capital markets. Our researchers examine the spectrum of financial risks faced at all levels of the economy. The centre promotes greater stability and good decision-making by businesses, individuals, government and regulators.
The nature and management of financial risks is investigated by a team of leading inter-disciplinary researchers with expertise in financial economics, econometrics and innovative modelling approaches.
Our research covers:
- International and domestic issues
- regulation and government policy
- banking, finance and asset pricing
- insurance and risk analysis
- energy and utility markets
- climatic change and catastrophic risks
- complex industry and corporate issues
- behavioural economics and financial literacy
The centre promotes:
- The exchange of ideas and techniques between academics, industry, practitioners and emerging researchers
- Pioneering research projects that deal with real-world problems
- The annual Financial Risk Day Conference
- A program of seminars, workshops and masterclasses.
Risk-based projects conducted by Centre for Financial Risk members include:
- Managing systemic risk through development of a real-time business conditions indicator
- The impact of business cycle risks on asset returns
- Risk management in superannuation and financial plans
- Currency risk and the role of central banks
- Risks associated with climate change
- Managing risks to electricity supplies
- Survival analysis for medical costs and insurance companies
- Dependency between risks and implications for financial institutions and regulators
We collaborate with industry, regulators, governments and leading overseas universities to ensure research outcomes are robust, realistic and relevant. We offer optimal value to our research partners through our pragmatic, commercially-aware and creative approach.
Financial risk news and events
The First Australasian Commodity Markets Conference was held at Macquarie University from 6th - 7th April 2017.
Organised and hosted by the Centre for Financial Risk, the Conference provided a forum for presenting and discussing high-quality research in all areas of economics and finance related to commodity markets, with an emphasis on – but not limited to – the Australasian aspects of commodity markets and energy risk.
Held in conjunction with the Journal of Commodity Markets, the Conference included keynotes by Marcel Prokopczuk, Professor of Finance at Leibniz University Hannover, Germany, and a double plenary with speakers Thomas Schmitz, Director EEX Group Sales - Global Commodities and Chief Commercial Officer of eeX in Singapore, and Professor Graham Town, from the Department of Engineering at Macquarie University.
There were over 40 international and national presenters and attendees including the Chief and Deputy General Managers of the Securities Exchange Board of India. The conference program included papers on gas and agricultural markets, trading strategies, risk management and premiums, and hedging and derivatives, all from an Australasian perspective.
The conference organisers Professor Stefan Trueck and Dr Lurion De Mello would like to acknowledge and thank the inaugural Australasian Commodity Markets Conference Sponsors: eeX, Woollahra Partners and AFAANZ for their contribution to a very successful event.
The 7th Financial Risk Day brought together a experts from industry, academia and regulators to analyse and discuss recent developments in financial research. This year's theme: the Impact of Technological Innovation on Financial Risk.
The Centre for Financial Risk in the Faculty of Business and Economics hosted Macquarie University’s seventh annual Financial Risk Day on 17 March 2017 at the Sydney Swissotel.
Risk Day is an event held each year by Macquarie University's Centre for Financial Risk to showcase work by researchers in this multi-disciplinary centre while enhancing links with industry and regulatory practitioners. Risk Day is a key platform to exchange ideas on emerging research and regulatory issues on important risk-related topics.
This year’s theme - Impact of Technological Innovation on Financial Risk – brought together experts on Blockchain, Cryptocurrencies, Data Analytics, and the current wave of FinTech to examine the impact of these developments on the finance and insurance sector, economic and social exposure, and potential gains.
This year was also the first time the Centre partnered with the Optus Macquarie University Cyber Security Hub to profile cyber security as a cross-cutting theme. This provided opportunities to discuss how industry, government and universities are collaborating to develop resilience of cyber security for business and society.
Sessions themes included:
- Risk management issues related to Fintech and digital currencies
- Innovations and risk modelling in cyber security
- Impacts of the blockchain on financial markets and institutions
- Digital banking services
- Risk fundamentals for successful peer-to-peer lending
Financial Risk Day 2017 brought together representatives of industry, academia and regulatory bodies including:
- David Yermack, cryptocurrency expert - New York University
- Piet De Jong, Professor of Actuarial Studies - Macquarie University
- Fergus Brooks, National Practice Leader, Cyber Risk – AON
- Simon Schwartz, Executive Director - Adexum Capital Peer-to-Peer Lending
- Mike Aitken, CEO, Professor and Chief Scientist - Capital Markets CRC
- Pete Steel, Executive General Manager, Digital - Commonwealth Bank of Australia
In a joint public lecture for the Centre for Financial Risk and Department of Economics, Dr Thierry Bros, Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University, addressed an important issue for the economy: Australia v Russia: Competing to provide gas to China?
The presentation on Friday 4 November considered recent changes in the processes involved in supplying gas for export from Russia and the implications for other gas exporting countries, especially Australia.
Dr Bros has worked in the energy field for more than 20 years, involved with both policy and trading. He launched the European gas and power research arm for Société Générale in 2011. He is recognised as a leader in the energy industry sector having been credited as best European gas analyst for four years in a row (2013-2016) based on the broad range of strategic issues covered.
Dr Bros is a member of the EU-Russia Gas Advisory Council and an advisor for the World Energy Council - Global Gas Centre. He is also a visiting professor at SciencesPo Paris, a senior research fellow at Oxford University, a senior expert at Energy Delta Institute, an Advisory Board Member for the Research Center for Energy Management (ESCP Europe) and a visiting lecturer at IFP School.
Thierry Bros has a Master of chemical engineering from ESPCI ParisTech and a PhD from Ecole Centrale Paris.
The visit was hosted by Centre for Financial Risk member Rosalyne Joyeux from the Department of Economics.
Professor Gary Tian has joined the Centre for Financial Risk, bolstering the centre's reputation for research excellence.
Gary was appointed Professor of Finance in the Faculty of Business and Economics in mid-2016, after a previous role as Professor and Director of HDR and Research in the Department of Finance, and also founding Director of the Centre of Business Research in China, at Deakin Business School. He was also former Professor of Finance and Director of Chinese Commerce Research Centre at Wollongong University. He has held various visiting professorships in universities in China such as Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, and South China University of Technology.
Professor Tian has supervised more than a dozen PhD students. His research interests focus on corporate finance including political connections, CEO compensation, bank lending and informal finance, investment efficiency and family firm and audit opinions and auditor choice. Gary has published in leading finance journals such as the Journal of Corporate Finance (2011, 2012, 2013, 2015) and Journal of Banking and Finance (2015, 2016 and one paper in press). Last year, as one of CIs, he secured the only ARC Discovery Grant in the field of finance (2015-2017). He won a Best Paper Awards from the Financial Management Association in 2011 and Pacific Basin Finance Journal in 2015 and Emerald Citations of Excellence Award for 2015 for his authored paper published in Journal of Corporate Finance in 2012.
Professor Pavel Shevchenko is a welcome new member of the Centre for Financial Risk after joining the Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies in August 2016.
Before his appointment, Prof Shevchenko was a research scientist at CSIRO Australia where he had been since 1999. From 2012 he had held the position of a Senior Principal Research Scientist.
At the CSIRO, Pavel worked in the area of financial risk, leading research and industry commercial projects on modelling of operational and credit risks, longevity and mortality, retirement products, option pricing, insurance, modelling commodities and foreign exchange, and the development of relevant numerical methods and software. He received a MSc from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology in 1994 and a PhD from The University of New South Wales in 1999.
Pavel is currently an Adjunct Professor at the University of NSW, adjunct Professor at University of Technology Sydney, and Honorary Senior Research Associate in University College London. He is also associate editorof international journals (RISKS and Journal of Operational Risk) and member of a retirement incomes working group at the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. He has published extensively in academic journals, consults for major financial institutions and is a frequent presenter at industry and academic conferences. His publication records include one research monograph, two co-authored research monographs, more than 60 journal papers and over 80 technical reports.
Associate Professor Roy Kouwenberg from Mahidol University, Thailand, presented an econometrics workshop on Measuring Risk and Ambiguity Preferences as part of his visit to the Centre for Financial Risk.
A half-day workshop on this topic, along with a second presentation on a liability-relative drawdown approach to pension asset liability management, were delivered as part of a separate event at Macquarie Applied Finance Centre attended by more than 35 people, largely from industry, on 24 November.
Panel discussions followed each session and involved Frank Ashe, Honorary Fellow MAFC; David Bell, Chief Investment Officer, Mine Wealth and Wellbeing Super Fund; Simon Russell, director of Behavioural Finance Australia and Steve Christie, Director and Principal of ACD Financial, along with Associate Professor Peter Vann, MAFC, as moderator.
The additional campus workshop, attended by almost 20 participants, was held on 1 December 2016 at the Experimental Lab at MGSM and was targeted at PhD students. It explored attitudes to risk and uncertainty as a key component of most economic models and examined developments in the past two decades in methods to measure these preferences in the lab and in the field, and ways of improving outcomes through careful design and implementation of models.
The workshop reviewed some of the standard methods for measuring risk attitudes commonly applied in the literature. It also looked at a relatively new strand of literature involving measuring people’s attitudes to ambiguity where decision problems arise because the probabilities of outcomes are not known, or “unknown unknowns”.
Roy is also director of the PhD Program at Mahidol University’s College of Management in Bangkok. Roy received his PhD in Finance from Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands and he is a CFA charterholder. Prior to joining CMMU, Roy held positions as quantitative analyst at AEGON Asset Management, The Netherlands, as a postdoctoral fellow at the University of British Columbia, Canada, and as assistant professor at the Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand. He is a visiting researcher at the Erasmus School of Economics, The Netherlands.
Dr Kouwenberg’s research areas are investment and behavioural finance. His main focus is on behavioural portfolio choice, especially the impact of loss aversion and ambiguity aversion on stock market participation. He has also done extensive research on financial risk management, especially asset-liability management for pension funds and insurance firms.
Dr Kouwenberg has published his work in the Journal of Financial Economics, Management Science, the Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis and the Review of Economics & Statistics, amongst others. He is an editor of the Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, published by Cambridge University Press. He has refereed articles for the Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies, American Economic Review and Econometrica.