The Cost of Living Longer: Projecting the Effects of Prospective Mortality Improvement on Economic Support Ratios for a Selection of OECD Countries. - Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy

The Cost of Living Longer: Projecting the Effects of Prospective Mortality Improvement on Economic Support Ratios for a Selection of OECD Countries. - Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy

Project overview

The aims of this project are twofold:
  1. To forecast mortality for a wide range of more developed countries from 2010-2050, and
  2. to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns for economic support ratios assuming continuation of current fertility, migration and labour force participation.

The mortality forecasts are prepared for eighteen countries using the Poisson Common Factor Model proposed by Li (2013). The mortality forecasts show that the projected gains in life expectancy are greatest in Japan, Israel, Australia and East-Central Europe, and are least in Ukraine, Netherlands, North America and Sweden.

Preliminary results for the projections show that the support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan, East-Central and Southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. The dependency of the estimated effects of mortality improvement on support ratios and the initial age structure and the assumed levels of fertility, migration and labour force participation is discussed.

Funding

  • Australian Actuarial Research Grants

Researchers

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